复杂导弹武器装备通用层次模块化诊断模型

根据复杂导弹武器装备系统的组成、结构、故障机理和故障诊断的特点,建立其通用的层次模块化故障诊断模型,研究了层次模块化故障诊断机理和诊断过程中所采用的推理搜索机制,建立的层次模块化故障诊断模型能够根据具体诊断问题的特点,选择不同的故障诊断方法,逐层逐块深入进行诊断,直到完成诊断任务。故障诊断模型具有很强的通用性、可行性和潜在的应用价值,基于此模型的故障诊断系统的建立将有助于复杂导弹武器装备的维修保障。     

基于模糊MODM的空袭目标威胁评估

针对当前空中来袭目标的主要特点,运用模糊多目标决策(MODM)理论和方法,提出了一种空袭目标威胁评估方法。首先对影响空袭目标威胁程度的因素进行了分析;然后阐述了如何确定影响目标威胁评估的各个指标值;最后依据多目标决策方法,建立了在各指标权重值只有部分已知的情况下,目标威胁评估的数学模型,并通过示例介绍了威胁评估的求解过程。仿真结果表明,该方法有效地解决了目标威胁评估与排序问题,提高了防空作战效能。     

Arrival and departure state distributions in the general bulk‐service queue

In this paper, we give an explicit relation between steady‐state probability distributions of the buffer occupancy at customer entrance and departure epochs, for the classical single‐server system G/G^[N]/1 with batch services and for the finite capacity case. The method relies on level‐crossing arguments. For the particular case of Poisson input, we also express the loss probability in terms of state probabilities at departure epochs, yielding probabilities observed by arriving customers. This work provides the “bulk queue” version of a result established by Burke, who stated the equality between probabilities at arrival and departure epochs for systems with “unit jumps.” © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 107–118, 1999     

一种模糊阶段态势估计方法

态势指标的运动是动态和高度非线性的,甚至无法给出一个确切的数学描述。采用模糊数学这一在军事决策领域中普遍应用的方法,给出了一种态势分析的通用方法。采取模糊因果聚类的方法,利用物理传感器信息和历史数据(历史战例、作战模拟结果等)来静态求取阶段态势指标的估计值,同时采用模糊Bayes决策方法,利用非物理传感器的信息来修正估计,并且给出了优化的态势控制(作战决策)方法。     

基于多层循环并行化的负载平衡优化

负载平衡是并行处理中的一个重要概念。参与一个程序执行的各处理机所承担的工作量是否均衡直接影响该程序的并行性能。本文对面向MPP系统程序循环级并行化中负载平衡的优化进行了探讨,提出了优化策略及其实施算法。     

战术防空激光武器发展概况

空中攻击与防空作战在相互斗争中发展,随着空中威胁目标种类变化、性能提高,作为防空武器的一个重要的新型分支,防空激光武器在快速发展,将在近程防空与反导中起重要作用。综述了空中威胁变化对激光武器的需求,激光武器的分类、组成与特点,以及国外战术防空激光反导武器系统发展概况。     

电磁发射的出口速度及负载质量变化对导轨热量的影响

为分析不同发射出口速度、不同发射负载质量对导轨积累热量的影响,建立了导轨温度场模型,计算了导轨各点温度变化过程,并和光纤光栅温度传感器测量结果对比,验证了模型及测量结果的正确性。在此基础上,设计并进行了三种类型实验,分析了在不同发射速度、不同发射负载质量以及相同发射能级不同发射速度下的导轨热量积累差异。该结论为确定连发间隔、导轨冷却设计提供了有效参考。     

浅析广场空间的界面处理方式

广场空间是由建筑、道路等围合限定并把周围各独立部分结合成整体的城市公共空间.随着城市化进程的加快,建筑师对广场空间的处理方式呈现多样化趋势,不同的处理方式会对广场产生不同的限定效果.将广场空间处理方式划分成水平界面处理和垂直界面处理两种类型进行研究,通过实例分析,揭示了不同处理方式可以产生封闭、开敞,内向、外向,宁静、庄严等不同感觉,这既丰富了市民的文化生活,改善了城市环境,也反映了当代特有的广场文化.     

Influences on threat assessment in a military context

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.     

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ON THE ROAD TO NUCLEAR ZERO

The disappointingly slow pace of progress on efforts to prevent proliferation, reduce nuclear weapons, and eliminate nuclear risks has many causes. The factor that might be easiest for individuals in the arms control and nonproliferation community to change stems from their own ambivalence about major questions that must be addressed on the road to reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world to zero. This essay explores how ambivalence about four key issues—strategic stability, alliance relations, institution-building, and nuclear energy—often leads community members to take positions that play well at home and within their like-minded group but raise unintended impediments to achieving their own long-term goals. The author suggests alternative ways to handle these questions to improve the prospects for domestic and international agreement on practical measures that would eliminate, not perpetuate, nuclear risks.